Plays for the Presidency
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Want to know the moves and counter-moves of the 2008 presidential candidates? Economists have game theory. Chemists have the periodic table. So why not politicos?
Welcome to the interactive strategy blog Plays for the Presidency™, created by entrepreneur and author Alan Kelly and political scholar and consultant Michael Cornfield. First launched at The Politico in April 2007, Plays for the Presidency is based on the critically acclaimed book from Penguin, The Elements of Influence, and landmark strategy and prediction system, The Playmaker's Standard™. In this space, Kelly and Cornfield post their nonpartisan takes, derived from The Playmaker's Table, a code-cracking classification system of 25 irreducibly unique "plays" in politics, business and even pop culture. From the subtle Ping of a soft-sounding surrogate to the outrageous Peacock of a desperate dark horse, these are the moves that build a base, outwit a rival, and win elections.
Tune in to The Playmakers on Sirius XM Satellite radio, channel 130, P.O.T.U.S, the new 24-hour presidential election destination. Click here for an online trial.
Click here to e-mail the Playmakers.
Disco
Disco: DX
Definition
The concession or sacrifice by a player of an element of its platform in order to preserve or advance its overall agenda or argument. The central tenet of a Disco is that forward progress cannot be achieved by the player unless or until the player first moves backward (i.e., one step back, two steps forward.)
Preempt
Preempt: PE
Definition
Action that reverses competitive position, giving the player a superior advantage, limiting a rival's ability to exploit a player's weakness, or both. Preempts are usually decisive and swift so as to surprise and disable the competition.
Obama's Oath: Take Two
January 23, 2009
The PresidentAos Disco-play was the most unexpected of this week''s influence strategies
There’s nothing that happens in politics that’s not rooted in influence strategy. And while all political machinations have an end-purpose in mind, the “plays,” – that is, the “stratagems” – used to achieve that purpose are fundamentally unique. (See The Playmaker’s Table for the 25 distinct strategies of political spin.) That being said, Week One of the Obama administration was, as expected, chalk full of strategy.
President Obama’s executive order to the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay was Preempt —a play from the Attack subclass of The Playmaker’s Table that gives a player a superior advantage or limits a rival’s ability to exploit a weakness. In this case, the Preempt was designed to stay ahead of U.S. critics abroad, who will now have less to criticize and put the Obama administration on the path to winning the moral battle in the war on terror.
Not to be outdone, the president’s appointments of Senator George Mitchell as Middle East envoy and Richard Holbrooke as special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan on Thursday were a two-part play, in this case, a Screen + Preempt . The Screen, a play that resides in the Frame subclass on The Playmaker’s Table, is a strategy that borrows events and symbolic references to advance an agenda. In this case, Messrs Mitchell and Holbrooke both have substantial peace accomplishments on their resumes, the former in brokering the Good Friday Peace Deal in Northern Ireland, and the later in writing the Dayton Peace Accords, which brought an end to the Bosnian Wars of the 1990s. The Screen on the envoys’ experience and diplomatic success, coupled with the Preempt of aggressively pursuing these two issues in his first week in office, give Mr. Obama a powerful strategy-baseline to pursue his agenda in the Middle East and in South Asia.
Perhaps the most interesting play – and surely the most spur-of-the-moment – was the Disco play run by the White House on Wednesday evening. After Chief Justice John Roberts misread the Presidential Oath of Office at the Inauguration on Tuesday, the White House decided that Mr. Obama should retake the oath “out of an abundance of caution.” In the realm of strategy, the play was a Disco , a play that resides in the Freeze subclass of The Playmaker’s Table, whereby a player sacrifices an element of his platform in order to preserve or advance its overall agenda or argument. The central tenet of a Disco is that forward progress cannot be achieved by the player unless or until the player first moves backward (i.e., one step back, two steps forward.) In this case, Mr. Obama’s counsel decided, “out of an abundance of caution,” that it would be best for the President to retake the oath—just to be safe. Strategically speaking, the administration conceded that there may have been a lingering doubt or two about Mr. Obama’s legitimacy (one step back), and that in order to silence any lingering doubts, he should retake the oath (two steps forward).
The Obama Administration will certainly be a sea of strategy. At any given point, you can rest assured that one of the 25 unique stratagems of The Playmaker’s Table will be in play. So we invite you to follow along with us, The Playmaker’s, to fill you in on the strategy game of the POTUS, here on the Plays of the Presidency blog.
Posted by: John Koval
Photo Credit: aceshowbiz.com
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Fiat
Fiat: FT
Definition
The declaration of information or demonstration of capability to a marketplace. Fiats are characteristically run without fanfare and rely on the position of the player or the merits of the declaration to shift a competitive dynamic.
Plays for the Presidency Awards:
November 2, 2008
Best and Worst of the 2008 Campaigns
Presidential candidates run plays. We know this now. They employ influence strategies to win votes for themselves, to take them from others and, once they''re in, to drive their agenda and policies. Here, on this last day of campaigning, we tap once again our groundbreaking Playmaker''s Table to find the best and the worst Plays for the Presidency:
- Play of the Year: For better or for worse, John McCain’s signature play, the Crazy Ivan , was run to perfection in his radical endorsement of the Iraq troop-surge in April 2007 and his VP pickof Gov. Sarah Palin in September 2008. It makes Col. Joshua Chamberlain at Gettysburg look downright wimpy.
- Most Blatant Screen: Hillary Clinton was never far from her hubby Bill and she never patted down the welcome inference that she, too, had eight years experience in the White House. Honorable mentions are Rudi Giuliani’s shameless attachment to 911 and Mitt Romney’s unabashed salutes to the Reagan Revolution.
- Worst Timing Play: With the media pressing for a speech on religion, Mitt Romney was late to the party with his nuanced address on Faith in America. But he paused too long to clear the media hurdle. Worse, he talked more about church and state than about church and Mormons. Mitt, like someone''s dad sporting a pair of bell bottoms, could never get hip to the party.
- Worst Playcalling: Rudi Giuliani was no less blind in the primary game. He trusted his playcallers to skip the formative contests of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (an infamous Pass ), only to fall flat in his coveted Florida market. Giuliani became a better surrogate to the GOP. Who, among the contenders, ran a better Call Out or Label on Hillary and Obama?
- Best Filter: Somehow, Rudi Giuliani, himself a supporter of abortion rights, managed to be a first-tier candidate in the pro-life party. That was a real trick, and the handiwork of a well-run Filter .
- Strategery Award: For actor-turned-lawmaker-turned-candidate Fred Thompson, there wasn’t much strategy. We tipped our hat to his clever taunting of Michael Moore (a Bait ) and his early disclosure of cancer bouts (a Lantern ), but he waited too long to answer the call of antsy right-wingers (a self-inflicted and over-used Pause ).
- Perception-is-Reality Award: John Edwards, with all his money and all his hair, never really looked like the voters he claimed to represent. It was a case of perception rejected by reality, a brand that never matched a message. Just ask Elizabeth.
- Plucked Peacock Award: Rep. Dennis Kucinich, with his ready-reference Pocket Constitution was an enduring (and endured) annoyance to candidates and primary followers alike -- a lame stunt . Honorable mention goes to Tom Tancredo for his anti-immigrant play. His passionate position was only effected through me-too Crowds .
- Most Oblivious Playmaker: Rep. Ron Paul’s message was well-crafted, but not his influence strategy. Playmaking is a discipline of continuous assessment, conditioning and engagement, and Paul only lived in the modest pressing subclass of The Playmaker’s Table. His play of choice: The harmless and easily ignored Fiat . Though he developed a following, his base was more cult than constituency. To tap the mainstream voter, he’d have done better to engage his rivals with Baits , Challenges , and Preempts .
- Best Self-Label: Gov. Sarah Palin’s self-deprecating comparison to a “Pitbull with Lipstick” is a Label that was bound to stick. It makes Bill Clinton’s “Comeback Kid” self-reference look small-time. Now if she can just manage to peel off Tina Fey.
- Best Label: When video bites of Barack Obama’s pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, exposed the now-infamous “God Damn America” sermon, conservative media and bloggers made the most of it in blatant plays that Labeled Obama a suspicious militant and closet Muslim. Eschewing American flag lapel pins, bitter cling gaffes in liberal San Francisco, and even knowing a 1960s radical didn’t help either.
- Best Counter-Play: When asked during a Democratic candidate debate by NBC anchor Brian Williams if he could keep his gaffe-prone mouth shut as President, Sen. Joe Biden answered simply and briefly, “Yes.” It was a quick-witted Fiat that killed a moderator’s over-the-top Bait .
- Worst Impersonation of Martin Luther King: Obama’s Greek-columned backdrop at Denver’s mile-high stadium was a Screen intended to inspire the left and middle. Instead it was a Peacock to be taunted by the right.
- Best Impersonation of Ronald Reagan: Obama at Berlin, standing in the shadow of the Victory column, he Screened the city of liberty to advance his agenda and seal his global popularity.
- Best Play by a Reporter: The late Meet the Press moderator Tim’s Russert’s sharp-edged Mirrors are worthy of the award. These were always better than so many self-serving Baits by his colleague-competitors. Russert’s plays were more about illuminating facts than exposing them.
- Nastiest Play: Hillary’s soft Ping on RFK’s assassination, vaguely (though effectively) surfaced the risk of an Obama assassination. She denied the effect, naturally, but the setting was too perfect and her struggling campaign was too desperate to ignore the play. It was, we contend, a calculated reference.
- Mother of all Surrogates: Oprah Winfrey, a Proxy -type surrogate, was never a better and more-timely advocate for Barack Obama. The media millionaire turned millions of votes for her media darling candidate. She sealed the deal in the Iowa caucus and kicked the Obama ticket to the front of the primary line.
- Honorable Mention, Best Preempt: Chris Dodd was first to the table with a position on global warning. Everyone else was left to run Crowds , even Bill Richardson. But did it ever really matter?
Post by Alan Kelly
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Label
Label: LB
Definition
A word or phrase - self-given by a player or attributed to an opponent - that reshapes or deepens the meaning of the recipient's position, brand, or reputation. A Label, typically rooted in symbols and metaphors, is characterized by simplification, alliteration, and other semantic tricks.
Screen
Screen: SN
Definition
The attempt by a player to borrow issues, ideas, events, or other symbolic references to advance its agenda or thwart a competitor's movements.
Speed Chess and Politics:
October 22, 2008
Final Plays for the Presidency
Have you ever played speed chess? It''s the Great Game played with a clock, a.k.a. blitz. It''s strategy in real time, played with limited time. And in the plays for the 2008 presidency, it''s what''s shaping the home stretch to November 4th.
Here''s our analysis of the game each campaign is playing and the moves they might make:
McCain-Palin Play Selection:
- The Plumber''s Screen : You’d think that Joe-the-Plumber is John McCain’s running mate. Either way, he''s the perfect foil to exploit Obama’s ill-advised “spread-the-wealth” sound bite.
- The Socialist Label : “Spread the wealth” gaffe gives Sarah Palin her bridge to somewhere…a Label of Obama as a Socialist.
- The Un-American Ping : The “Socialist” play helps McCain-Palin propel the whisper campaign agaist Obama -- He''s a terrorist, he''s un-American, he''s not a Christian, he''s a Muslim. A well applied Socialist tag makes sense (however thinly) of the other Labels.
Obama-Biden Play Selection:
- Screen the Stats: Barack Obama is leading. Fuel the perception he’s winning. That fuels the "inevitability" coverage. Makes liberal media sound victorious and authoritative. Even better for Obama-Biden, it makes conservative media shrill, desperate.
- (Continue) to Pass on Palin: Let Sarah Palin do everything she’s doing. Her SNL appearance (a Crazy Ivan of her own) was ill-conceived. Her interviews are confirming voter wariness of her readiness.
- Fiat with Abandon: With the Obama fundraising windfall, advertise-advertise-advertise. Spots should be declaratory Fiats more than antagonistic Call Outs to support Obama’s rising status and minimize engagement with a punching-prone McCain.
Click on the left for this playmaker''s free podcast, and tune in to XM POTUS (channel 130) on Fridays at 5:30 p.m. EST each week to hear Plays for the Presidency live.
Post by Alan Kely
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Screen
Screen: SN
Definition
The attempt by a player to borrow issues, ideas, events, or other symbolic references to advance its agenda or thwart a competitor's movements.
It's All About Joe:
October 14, 2008
Final POTUS Debate is a PlumberAos Screen
Say it ain’t so, Joe? That was Gov. Sarah Palin’s rehearsed line in her single debate with Sen. Joe Biden. Tonight’s third and final debate between Senator’s John McCain and Barack Obama was also about a guy named Joe. Joe Wurzelbacher that is, an Ohio plumber, whose insertion into the final presidential contest was equally practiced.
Listening in from the XM Radio studios with election co-anchors Joe Mathieu and Rebecca Roberts, we counted no less than nine references by the populist-sounding McCain to Joe-the-Plumber. Like Mitt Romney, heretofor the 2008 candidate most proned to killing a good line, the senior senator could barely contain his glee as he pounded Obama for telling Joe at a Toledo, OH, rally that his tax plan is to “distribute the wealth .” It was a Mirror play, run well the first few times but, ultimately, run five or six or seven times too many.
Symbols are as important as words in the discipline of playmaking. And Joe-the-plumber is a case in point. His hope of buying a business, his worry over taxes, his entrepreneurial striving, are all images that both parties want for their own brands. So his name was bounced about, like a strategy play-toy, tussled away by Obama briefly who decided that he, too, should talk about the Everyman Plumber (three times).
For playmakers following The Playmaker’s Table, Joe Wurzelbacher was an unwitting surrogate, specifically a Partner , whose allegiances are presently unknown but coveted. McCain ran Screen’s on Joe, only to have Obama run Crowds to keep a piece of the plumber for himself.
Click on the left for this playmaker''s free podcast, and tune in to XM POTUS (channel 130) on Fridays at 5:30 p.m. EST each week to hear Plays for the Presidency live.
Post by Alan Kelly
Photo Credit: LA Times
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Bait
Bait: BT
Definition
The overt provocation of an opponent through action or information, usually intended to draw an emotional, rather than rational, response. This play typically compels an opponent to move in the direction of the player - like a bull charging a cape - against its better judgment.
Fiat
Fiat: FT
Definition
The declaration of information or demonstration of capability to a marketplace. Fiats are characteristically run without fanfare and rely on the position of the player or the merits of the declaration to shift a competitive dynamic.
It's All About Hope:
October 6, 2008
2nd POTUS Debate Fails to Inspire
Who will win tonight?, XM POTUS 08 Joe Mathieu anchor asked my playmaker partner Mike Cornfield. The winner, said the good professor and political scientist, will be the candidate who brings optimism to the debate.
Agreed. Against the backdrop of economic fears, tonight''s second of three presidential face-offs needed to be something less (or more?) of what we are reading and watching in the news of a crashing Wall Street. Voters will respond, Cornfield explained, to the man who has a sense of what is possible, not probable.
With that simple criteria, we set aside our Gov. Sarah Palin wink-o-meter and looked past the ill-advised Bear Hugs of Sen. Barack Obama (i.e., My opponent is right) of Debate #1 and the merciless Labels applied by Sen. John McCain (i.e., My opponent just doesn’t understand). What we saw was one clear loser and one clear survivor.
McCain was grim, a Captain Queeg, grinding his marbles in angry, pacing testimony. Obama was politic and poised, but more the narrator than evangelist.
Judged as a debate, punch for punch, there’s little doubt that the bout went to McCain. His Pings with barely-veiled side-shots -- a hair transplant joke made at VP-pick Joe Biden’s expense. He ran diverting plays, like Red Herrings , to sabotage Obama’s pro-regulation policies – My friends, what you’re hearing is a plan for socialized medicine. And he engaged with attacking plays, like his repeating Bait – My opponent will negotiate with Iran without preconditions?! From one end of the playmaker’s spectrum to the other, John McCain walked his way around the rhetorical ring and bested Obama.
But in this second no-gaffe debate it didn’t matter. Obama played it safe with declaratory Fiats , calm Recasts , and only occasional Call Outs of his GOP competitor. Post-debate surveys showed him the victor by handy margins -- yet another sign that Obama’s hopeful message of Change iseclipsing permanently McCain’s gloomy Straight Talk.
Click on the left for this playmaker''s free podcast, and tune in to XM POTUS (channel 130) on Fridays at 5:30 p.m. EST each week to hear Plays for the Presidency live.
Post by Alan Kelly
Photo Credit: We Need The Eggs
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Label
Label: LB
Definition
A word or phrase - self-given by a player or attributed to an opponent - that reshapes or deepens the meaning of the recipient's position, brand, or reputation. A Label, typically rooted in symbols and metaphors, is characterized by simplification, alliteration, and other semantic tricks.
Lantern
Lantern: LN
Definition
The deliberate and preemptive disclosure by a player of its own flaw, mistake, or some source of potential embarrassment or controversy.
Phat Lady Sings...Too Late:
October 1, 2008
Palin''s Strong Show Fails As Voters Break Left
Voters were served their last info-meal tonight with the long-awaited Vice President debate of the great ''08 race.
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, what texting pundits are calling PHAT (Pretty-Hot-And-Tasty), held her own against Delaware Sen. Joe Biden but earned no measurable victory. Biden, we might twitter, was judged the SC4ST (Serious-Candidate-For-Serious-Times).
By most reports -- from focus groups to phone surveys -- viewers broke 2:1 in Biden''s favor. Palin ran canned Labels (Say it ain''t so, Joe) and self-inoculating Lanterns (I''ve been at this for, what, five weeks?). But it didn''t matter.
Presuming that the McCain-Obama debates #2 and #3 produce no more drama than debate #1 (a likelihood), the Palin-Biden debate marks for most undecided voters the last relevant base to cover. They know enough now to know how they''ll vote. And with results like this, you''d have to think it''s over.
Obama is edging away in the polls. McCain is pulling out of Michigan. Palin impressed but never prevailed. And the economy is caving, bailout bill or not.
These facts aside, Camp McCain will go down swinging. They''ll go negative to wing Obama and, based on their penchant for Crazy Ivans , they''ll surprise us with radical plays to slow their rival. Look for more than grim references to Obama''s inexperience and his edgy friends to fuel the Straight Talk Express. Something more is coming from McCain, we''re sure.
Click on the left for this playmaker''s free podcast, and tune in to XM POTUS (channel 130) on Fridays at 5:30 p.m. EST each week to hear Plays for the Presidency live.
Post by Alan Kelly
Photo Credit: NYTimes.com
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Bear Hug
Bear Hug: BG
Definition
The conspicuously public support or embrace of an opponent's position or message.
Label
Label: LB
Definition
A word or phrase - self-given by a player or attributed to an opponent - that reshapes or deepens the meaning of the recipient's position, brand, or reputation. A Label, typically rooted in symbols and metaphors, is characterized by simplification, alliteration, and other semantic tricks.
McCain Wins First Debate with 'Naive' Labels:
September 25, 2008
Obama''s 14 Bear Hugs Suggest Play-Safe Strategy
If you tuned in the USC-Oregon St. shocker last week and then watched the first Presidential debate in Oxford, Miss., you might have had a sense of deja vu. The underdog won.
The left-leaning U Street D.C. crowd at Nellie''s Sports Bar should be humbled. 20 empanada-eating patrons had predicted a swift Obama victory. And only a guy named Jack thought otherwise.
Sen. John McCain was the aggressor, running Labels on Barack Obama -- that his rival is "naive," "inexperienced," and that he "doesn''t get it." The younger Senator countered, but more with monotone Fiats , reminiscent of Hillary Clinton''s dull patter. Obama was the superior intellectual, yes, but by all appearances the inferior executive. To make matters worse, he ran (off-strategy?) Bear Hugs on McCain, stating 14 times that he agreed with the Republican nominee''s positions.
Finally, thirty minutes into the debate, Obama dropped his "cost-of-the-war" message bomb on McCain. But the reference was soft and not hard-hitting. Like the favored USC, the Illinois Senator was down a quick three touchdowns to none.
If the Obama camp''s strategy is to play it safe, the junior Senator prevailed. If not, he got rolled. There were no references to McCain''s circus-class stunts to revive bailout-weary Washington. Quickly-played Call Outs on McCain''s sudden campaign suspension would have redrawn the battle lines, putting McCain on the defensive and counter-labeling him as "erratic."
That Obama left so much unsaid is sure evidence that it''s not his goal to dominate the debates. By extension, we''d expect VP running mate Joe Biden to be as careful, but that''s a tougher play for the Scranton fighter than the Chicago professor.
Click on the left for this playmaker''s free podcast, and tune in to XM POTUS (channel 130) on Fridays at 5:30 p.m. EST each week to hear Plays for the Presidency live.
Posted by Alan Kelly
Photo Credit: Christian Science Monitor
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